Election Results Eve: Tension Mounts Across Five States Before May 4 Counting

Quick Summary: Counting begins at 8:00 AM on May 4. In West Bengal, exit polls are split, with some predicting a historic BJP win and others a TMC sweep. Assam is expected to stay with the BJP, while Kerala is projected to tilt toward the Congress-led UDF. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK holds the lead, though newcomer Vijay’s TVK is set for a notable debut. Puducherry likely remains with the NDA.

The wait is almost over. Tomorrow, Monday, May 4, 2026, India will witness a high-stakes political showdown as the counting of votes begins for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. After weeks of high-octane campaigning and record-breaking voter turnouts reaching nearly 90% in parts of Bengal and over 89% in Puducherry the political fate of several heavyweights hangs in the balance.

The Bengal Battlefield: A Bipolar Cliffhanger

The most intense gaze is fixed on West Bengal. Exit polls released after the final phase on April 29 suggest a neck-and-neck fight between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

• The Projections: Most pollsters, including Matrize and P-MARQ, give a slight edge to the BJP, projecting them to cross the 148-seat majority mark.
• The Outlier: Conversely, People’s Pulse predicts a decisive fourth term for the TMC with a commanding 178–187 seats.
• The Stakes: If the BJP wins, it will be a historic first for the party in the state; if the TMC holds on, it solidifies Mamata Banerjee’s status as the indomitable force of regional politics.

Assam and Kerala: Incumbency vs. Change

In Assam, most analysts predict a “smooth sail” for the BJP-led alliance, with projections suggesting they will comfortably retain power with 85–101 seats in the 126-member house.

Kerala, however, appears ready to maintain its tradition of “cycling” power. After a decade of LDF (Left) rule, multiple exit polls project a comeback for the Congress-led UDF, estimated to win between 70 and 90 seats. Factors like anti-incumbency and economic anxieties are being cited as the primary drivers for this potential shift.

Tamil Nadu and Puducherry: The “Vijay Factor”

Tamil Nadu presents a fascinating dynamic. While Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance is tipped to retain power by most pollsters, the debut of actor Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), has emerged as a major disruptor. Some polls suggest TVK could secure as many as 18–24 seats, potentially eating into the traditional vote banks of both the DMK and AIADMK.

In Puducherry, the NDA (AINRC-BJP) is projected to hold a slim edge, likely retaining the Union Territory with 16–20 seats in the 30-member assembly.